北航经管学院“融实论坛”系列讲座

（2026年第1期）

讲座题目：Macro-Equity Logic Chains in the Stock Market

讲座时间：2026/4/17，10:00-12:00

讲座地点：新主楼A949

讲座嘉宾：隋鹏飞，香港中文大学（深圳）副教授

主持人：部慧副教授

讲座嘉宾 简介

隋鹏飞博士现为香港中文大学（深圳）金融系副教授，深圳数据经济研究院荣誉特聘教授。他于2018年在加利福尼亚理工学院获得社会科学（经济学）博士学位。其研究领域涉及行为金融学、资产定价、中国资本市场及人工智能与金融。他的研究成果主要发表于Journal of Financial Economics(三篇)、Review of Finance等金融学顶级期刊，并荣获包括中国金融学术年会（两次）、国际青年金融学者会议在内的多个会议的最佳论文奖。其文章多次在NBER Summer Institute, AFA, CICF,CFRC等国际会议上展示。

讲座概要

We study how equity analysts structure causal reasoning that links macroeconomic conditions to firm-level outcomes when forming forecasts. Using a comprehensive dataset that links each analyst to the full history of their macroeconomic and equity reports, we extract explicit causal statements describing how macroeconomic variables affect equity outcomes, which we term macro-equity logic chains or MELCs. We show that equity forecasts issued in reports containing MELCs are significantly more accurate, yet MELCs only appear in fewer than 10% of equity research. The components of MELCs, such as their types and length, are important in the improvement in forecast accuracy. Analysts’ past exposure to MELCs through writing macro reports strongly predicts their subsequent use of similar reasoning in equity reports and is associated with improved forecast accuracy. Consistent with their greater informational content, the equity market responds more strongly to recommendations issued by analysts who more frequently employ MELCs.